Вс. Мар 24th, 2019

Debt payment: why Opposition bloc party returned Rabinovich

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Yuriy Boyko, co-chairman of the Opposition Bloc party, and Vadim Rabinovich, leader of Zhyttya, outperformed Batkivshchyna leader Yulia Tymoshenko in the marathon of mergers and unions. On Friday, November 9, on the sidelines of the Verkhovna Rada, Boyko and Rabinovich announced the creation of an “Opposition Platform — For Life”. Both politicians stressed that the platform is open for the consolidation of opposition forces. So Yulia Vladimirovna can still jump on the train.
The “Boyko-Rabinovich” Alliance voiced three programmatic theses: peace — social sphere — neutrality in foreign policy. Thus, he staked out the basic themes of the “Opposition bloc”.
Hypothetically, the concentration of political forces is justified by the risk of an outflow of voters in the event of an internal war in one electoral field. In this case, the background is much more interesting.
Vadim Rabinovich once resonantly left the Opposition Bloc, accompanying his departure with critical comments. If you recall the rumors circulating then, Rabinovich’s departure was attributed to disagreements between the political forces co-chairs.
However, now the situation is different: “For life!” Is not just a splitting political force with two leaders Vadim Rabinovich and Yevgeny Murayev, but a project officially taken “under his arm” by Viktor Medvedchuk. And if Medvedchuk wanted to strengthen his position in the Oppo-block, putting up his own resources and his creature against Donetsk, relatively speaking, “returning through Zhyttya” is cheap, logical and angry.
Thus, Oleksandr Vilkul, who, according to unverified data, is being promoted just by Donetsk (in particular, Akhmetov) gets a strong internal rival in the person fortified by the resources, connections and brains of Medvedchuk Yuriy Boyko.
That is why the key question of whom the Oppo-bloc will nominate as a presidential candidate remains open. But the intraspecific struggle reached the pre-final stage.
The Akhmetov part of the OP is currently cornered: if the Oppo Bloc collapses, voters will lose both parts of the political force, declaring unity as one of their merits. In addition, it would be strange to see a party advocating the consolidation of the country and, at the same time, splitting itself, and without any apparent sharp and significant (for the voter) contradictions.
On the other hand, to remain means to agree to a single presidential candidate, Yuriy Boyko, having uttered guarantees and preferences for yourself. This is also not an option.
Intermediate decision, apparently, will be Yevgeny Muraev. The Nashi platform has adopted theses, for one public voicing of which you can be suspected, at least in violation of the legislation on de-communization. The left niche is still conditionally free, Ilya Kiva, with his socialists, so far closes a narrow niche segment, and it is here, in theses close to many voters in southern and eastern Ukraine, that one can unfold in full force. Judging by the searches of the material Berezhnoy and the leaders of the public organization «Brothers», such ideas are not only discussed, but also locally tested.
But there is a nuance — the brand «Opposition bloc.» The word “oppositional” is advantageous in itself, it makes it possible to compete, including with IN “Batkivschyna” and Tymoshenko, also claiming to be the leader of the opposition, and enter its electoral field. How to divide the brand? Ideally, if it is impossible to divide, it is necessary to depreciate. Which, in turn, is fraught with an outflow of voters.
At the same time, the new alliance launches its brand — “Opposition platform — For life”. With a subtle hint that if friction starts, they can leave the Oppo-block with its toxicity for voters in central and especially western Ukraine.
Therefore, in the coming days, and perhaps weeks, everything will remain as it is. Since it is impossible to delay with hints of a single candidate for a long time, hints will begin, imitation of intrigues, etc. It will end in a fascinating action — primaries, where, as expected, the vicissitudes of the process will become more interesting than the winner’s name.
And if this happens, a relatively new phenomenon for the Ukrainian political will will be fixed, when the brand of political forces is stronger than the brand of leaders and a single candidate.
Or — a loud divorce. Which is also fascinating, but not so productive.

Lilia Brudnitskaya, expert of the СSP “VYBOR”