Tuesday evening, January 15, the British Parliament failed the Brexit vote. Prime Minister Theresa May risks losing her post. Loud staging, the result of which will still be Exit.
The UK explained the outcome of the referendum on leaving the EU for economic reasons, however, political motives are no less important. Misty Albion since the time of Tony Blair is perceived as a US outpost in the Old World. In principle, there is nothing terrible in this; any EU member state has the right to have its foreign policy priorities. But over the past few months, the EU has entered into open conflict with the United States, which somewhat changes the prioritization of both the UK and the States.
First, geographically, the United Kingdom is still Europe. And if trade conflicts arise with the United States and / or with China, with the Russian Federation, it is easier and more profitable to defend their interests together, that is, as part of the European Union. This is especially true of the energy issue: buy liquefied gas from Trump or agree to cheap Russian gas with the threat of expansion of the Kremlin in the appendage.
The President of the Russian Federation made an interesting rush to the north, to Belarus. If Alexander Lukashenko concludes an interstate agreement with Vladimir Putin, Kiev will have to reconsider its relations with Minsk, which will affect the energy «corridors» and affect US interests in the Old World.
Under these conditions, it makes sense for Washington to become thoughtful whether a British demarche from the European Union is so desirable. Among other things, the exit of the state from the EU will collapse the euro, which will indirectly shift the balance of power in world markets.
Secondly, if you go back to the political aspects of Brexit, the UK as a part of the EU held on its own, so the exit is a logical step. And the exit will take place, regardless of whether the parliament expresses a vote of no confidence in Teresa May or whether it will not come to resignation and early elections.
We believe the chances of a no-confidence vote are high. Theresa’s toxicity level is high enough to dismiss her. Some scandals in the health care system are worth something! May may recall the Scandal poisoning scandal, which did not lead to a decisive result, but seriously undermined the security of the UK.
On the other hand, it is May’s toxicity that gives her chances to stay in the premier’s seat: the consequences of Brexit can be unpredictable and no one is burning with the desire to be responsible for them.
If so, the parliament will approve the agreement on secession from the EU with difficulty, as if under pressure, in order to subsequently dump all the negatives on Teresa May. But it also does not make sense to take responsibility for the refusal of the Brexit parliament.
Why? Because it is not in the interests of Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel claims to be the de facto leader of the EU; she, by default, is responsible for the balance and stability of energy supplies (Nord Stream 2). For her, the failure of the UK to Brexit confused all the cards. That is why the official Brussels nervously reacted to the vote of the British Parliament.
If the UK leaves the EU, Germany will have an influential, with strong support from the outside, a counterweight. What is useful for the balance of power in the region. Among other things, there will be a precedent that, relatively speaking, it will weaken the position of Germany and Merkel and, probably, will undermine the Merkel-Macron alliance. And it will play a certain role in the European elections, of course, indirectly.
Therefore, the UK has nowhere to go — we must go. And she will come out.
What does this give to Ukraine? A speculative chance to beat off large volumes of gas transit and a stronger dependence on the United States. Given the internal ferment in the higher power levels of the States, this relationship can be both beneficial and dangerous. We, in fact, will find ourselves in the «pan or gone» position. Not to mention the real prospect of complicating relations with the European Union.
Lilia Brudnitskaya, expert of the VSP “VYBOR”
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