Ср. Окт 28th, 2020

On the anniversary of the “referendum” in the Crimea, Russia demanded money from Ukraine, and Turkey — quite the opposite.

Finance is more expensive

The Chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Volodin in an interview with Interfax voiced a significant thesis.

“Through our parliamentary structures, European structures, we will take and we will oblige Ukraine to compensate for what Crimea has lost in these 25 years.”

25 years — refers to the stay of the Crimea as part of Ukraine.
Volodin hinted at the responsibility of the European Union for the socio-economic situation of the Crimea.
Within one month, the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the State Council of Crimea intend to create a special working group that will calculate the amount of damage. This important detail was reported by Sergey Aksenov.

How can!

Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, if it responds, is predictably harsh. Although the statement of Volodin is a positive signal for Ukraine. And that’s why.
Firstly, the chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Federation stated this while staying in Simferopol at a joint meeting of the State Duma of Russia and the State Council of Crimea. Friction between Moscow and Simferopol began from the first weeks of the annexation, periodically reached a considerable intensity, but somehow managed to grind.
However, now the value of the peninsula for business and government-corruption circles of the Russian Federation is nearing zero. At the same time, local residents complain of low incomes and household problems (one problem of water is worth something). In addition to them, the Crimean elite also grumbles at the drying out of financial streams. Kremlin all these people need to answer something. They threw off the image of the enemy, adding the European Union to Ukraine, and made it clear to the Crimean elite that problems would be solved.

Let’s go to…

Secondly, the Kremlin is preparing a process on the Crimea. Putin needs the official semi-recognition of the peninsula component of Russia, at least by individual EU states. Otherwise, the moods of both the Crimean and local elites may not change for the better for the Kremlin.
It is required to transfer the initiative to the field of the EU, the USA and Ukraine, and also gain time. The trial is the best tool. At the same time, for some reason, Putin is confident that official Kiev, in words declaring the struggle for the return of the Crimea to Ukraine, in fact, will not fit in yet.
And that’s why.

Wins the third in the battle of two 

Turkey declared that it supported Ukraine in the issue of Crimea and considered the annexation of the peninsula to Russia as illegal, as was the referendum that served as the formal basis for the annexation. Turkey supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Another phrase statement of the Turkish Foreign Ministry:

«We will continue to support the Crimean Tatars, so that they live in peace and security not in their historical homeland, while maintaining their identity.»

The Foreign Ministry of Turkey calls the Crimean Tatars an indigenous people. Thus, Ankara makes it clear: if the Crimea, thanks to its efforts, returns to Ukraine, then it will be exclusively as the Crimean Tatar autonomy.

Not to autonomy

Theses of Turkey, formally pro-Ukrainian, in fact inhibit the solution of the issue for Ukraine. First, by creating one national autonomy, Kiev will launch a “parade of sovereignties”. To stop it, we need: a serious external threat, war and a powerful army, a strong power vertical, and most importantly, the absence of NATO. At the moment, this is impossible in Ukraine, although Petro Poroshenko is trying to build a powerful pyramid with all his might. That is why the Crimean amendments have not yet been made to the Constitution of Ukraine, although they were developed more than a year ago.
Secondly, flirting with Turkey can influence the mood of Ukraine’s supporters on the peninsula, since the Kremlin uses a reason to inflate hostility towards the Tatars. Since the peninsula is multiethnic (Ukrainians, Russians, Tatars, Greeks, Bulgarians and other peoples), the prospect of becoming a Crimean Tatar autonomy may frighten them.
Third, as soon as there are advances in the Crimean issue, Turkey and Russia will begin direct negotiations, and they will not need Poroshenko.

We go to Themis

Therefore, Kiev responds mirror: the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine is initiating the creation of a special group to assess losses from Russian aggression in the Crimea and the Donbas. This group is supposed to determine the amount of compensation in the framework of the functioning of the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions.
Crimea is subsidized for Russia, but strategically important for confronting NATO. For NATO, Crimea is also interesting if Turkey would take it into its sphere, but, as recent events in Ukraine have shown, the sentiments broadcast by official Kiev are somewhat emanating from the sentiments of the broad masses. These are additional risks, and in NATO they are not in a hurry to take risks. Returning Crimea to Ukraine would be an optimal and compromise solution: the Alliance does not enter into a head-on collision in Russia, but limits the presence of Russians in the Black Sea basin, Russia hopes for its enclaves on the peninsula (they are cheaper to maintain than the whole Crimea), and Ukraine restores its territorial integrity.
But while the parties are going to just sue.