Пт. Апр 26th, 2019

Conflict can erupt between Russia and the United States

h26-02-0

After testing the western direction of cooperation, the North Korean leader Kim Chen In un tries the east. Allegedly, Kim Chen In is preparing a visit to Russia. But now in the media he is mentioned more often as the one who fired a personal photographer due to excessive approach to his own person. But the United States is not going to leave North Korea at the discretion of fate, — Donald Trump has canceled additional readjustments for this country. And now the DPRK MFA accuses Mike Pompeo and John Bolton of disrupting the historic summit with Kim Jong-un. So, the North Korean leader has a choice: US or Russia?

Kim Chen In wanted to overthrow

In North Korea, the situation is similar to the Venezuelan one: there is a self-proclaimed “DPRK rebel group”, which not only indicated the aim of overthrowing the UN regime, but also selling visas to North Korea. Unlike Guaydo, the “rebels” are still virtual. They have a group on the Internet, the group places ambiguous videos (for example, for example, North Korean beats the portrait of the leader). It is possible that the group will in the near future even curtail such actions.
As the head of the Ukraine-DPRK Friendship Society Mykola Polishchuk told the Deputy Director, US President Donald Trump defeated the “war party”.

“Trump’s statement on North Korea is in line with his policy of curtailing the US presence in the hot spots of the planet and concentrating on US domestic issues. We can say that this is another victory of the American president over the «war party» that exists in the American military and political circles, whose supporters would like to overthrow Kim Jong-un by force. «

Multiple summit disruption

Moreover, according to the expert, the recent Vietnamese summit between the leaders of the DPRK and the United States, which is generally considered unsuccessful, is in fact not unsuccessfully unique. As Nikolay Polishchuk noted, Trump’s meetings with Kim Chen In cannot be measured by those categories, like protocol meetings of other states, considering, on the one hand, Kim Jong-un’s special role in the North Korean political system, and on the other, the importance of preserving Trump’s image .

“Probably, the relations between the two states will normalize more slowly than expected, but inevitably, because the leaders of both states seem to have found a common language between themselves. The fact that Kim Jong-un is trying not to meet with Vladimir Putin is also a certain gesture of reconciliation to the United States, although at the United Nations North Korea continues to vote in sync with Russia, ”the expert believes.

And what about the Kremlin Korea?

But now Ying seems to be eyeing the Kremlin stars. Rumors about the May summit are hardly accidental. However, according to Nikolai Polishchuk, North Korea is not the main priority for the Russian Federation:

«The Russian Federation is not active in the North Korean direction, it is interested in implementing only a few logistics projects: the railway to South Korea (and the Chinese are now pulling the same) and the port of Razhchina on the border between Russia and the DPRK.»

Intra-Korean question

But South Korea is very inclined towards reconciliation and the establishment of normal relations. First, Nikolay Polishchuk draws attention, the political future of President Moon Zhe Ina depends on this. Secondly, South Korean business is ready to invest in North Korea, but sectoral sanctions hold it back.

“The problem is made by conservatives in both states who are interested in preserving confrontation. It’s hard to say how strong they are in the DPRK, but in the USA they have strong support both among Democrats and Republicans, ”he noted.

So, the intrigue with North Korea is preserved: now Trump has a strong position, will he bet on the conservatives in both political camps of the USA? Especially if the intentions of the UN to meet with Putin are not empty rumors. When such a meeting takes place, the American conservatives will get a tactical victory over Trump across North Korea.

Ukraine from Korean intrigue can get bonuses

Our country is not directly involved in the Korean foreign policy process. This is facilitated by the fact, noted Nikolay Polishchuk, that we practically have no trade with the DPRK.

“Previously, they bought our planes, and we — refractory materials for metallurgy. And after we canceled the agreement on mutual trips of citizens in 2016, tourism became more complicated there. Therefore, the abolition of old or the introduction of new sanctions against this country will not affect us.”

But the expert assumes that, in general, reducing stress in the Far East will probably contribute to a larger view of key global players to the problems of Ukraine.

Rocket game

But there is another important nuance — North Korea is a nuclear power. The United States offers many profits in exchange for the destruction of nuclear weapons. Probably Ying would have agreed to this option, if not for the internal «old guard», which is influential enough to accuse him of treason against ideals. And if the States agreed to «close their eyes» to the remnants of nuclear weapons in North Korea «just in case.»
But Russia is ideologically closer to North Korea. In addition, the Kremlin has not voiced as powerfully as Trump, the need for North Korea to destroy all nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly, Ying is playing his game, but it is beneficial for Russia to have a conditionally loyal «nuclear technician.» Probably, it would be more interesting for Trump to surrender the Korean direction to the control of the Russian Federation before the elections in order to reproach his opponents with this as well.

ZamPolit