Elections-2019 became the most expensive to favourite candidates of a race and the most technological. Well it or is bad?
The first round testified what meanwhile some participants of a race were not sure of, — efficiency of technologies. What was earlier bashfully used locally on local elections or on a by-election in certain districts, is for the first time tried on in scales of the whole country now. It is «grid» which in various sources and various persons involved called also «pyramid». With one major feature: if locally it was possible to battle politically «grids», then at the level of the whole country this technology is effective only for authorities in power. Because only the authorities in power possess the vertical and an extensive network of local representations capable to involve «grid» at all levels at once and in coordination. It did not allow Yulia Tymoshenko who was also accused of «pyramid», to pull out the second place.
Short running on a long distance
For the first time the authorities in power applied not just «grids» nationally, and and other technologies. That is, it is about an enormous complete solution.
First, abundance of candidates that the voter became puzzled which literally for couple of days prior to the first round came down to a thesis «choose checkpoints».
Secondly, the number of opinion polls which, it seems, illustrating trends, because of the abundance worked as propaganda. First of all, for administrative resource, not sure whom to support.
Thirdly, technological use of direct competitors. Andrey Sadovyi and Anatoly Gritsenko’s association delayed voices from Yulia Tymoshenko.
Ballot box and grid
Technologies continued to work also after completion of vote. These are exit polls which recorded Vladimir Zelensky’s victory and the second place of Petro Poroshenko. In opinion polls just before March 31 came to the second place of Poroshenko only at the structures close to its environment or loyal to it. Therefore data of exit polls were not apprehended on March 31 as shock and did not cause indignation though at the household level and in social networks people were perplexed. The main factor – left to Zelensky his victory so, the voters who are especially revolted with the current president, protest electorate, did not receive the reasons for a protest.
The second round
On the second round Petro Poroshenko who got chance will throw enormous forces, means and all possible resource. At a briefing on March 31, following the results of vote, it said that «Kolomoysky’s puppet will not pass».
Means, in three weeks prior to the second round he will accent on threat of military aggression of the Russian Federation and Zelensky’s communication with Kolomoysky. Administrative resource, it is expected, will be built under the current president. Those who voted against Poroshenko will support Zelensky. And the result of the second round will depend on mobilization of protest electorate. It is easy not to allow it – to bring down an appearance.
Besides, Poroshenko’s technologists will easily connect Zelensky with the pro-Russian forces and the pro-Russian revenge. Thus, Bank will delay from Sze voices right and moderately right. Therefore the electoral reserve is urgently necessary for Zelensky for a victory. In due time Tymoshenko increased about 15% of voices. That is, it is possible though she then lost to Yanukovych. Possibly, Sze’s team will address moderate, westernized and to pragmatists and also simpatika of white-blue. But the fact of addresses to such electorate will allow Poroshenko’s technologists to accuse Zelensky of a white-blue revenge.
Plus the monetized subsidies, surcharges to pensions and other probable monetary «counters».
If to look further in the future, the celebration of technologies means that all subsequent elections in Ukraine will be technological. Means – highly predicted. As technologies are, first of all, money, the marathon of enrichment will reach new level. In fact, elections in a direct sense of this word will not be.
In due time nowadays the country aggressor of Russia went the same way.
Lilia Brudnitskaya, expert of TsSP «Choice»