Boris Johnson’s victory on early elections again returns on December 12 Brexit on the agenda — but it only the beginning. Johnson returns to the prime minister’s position with rather big political capital to bring Great Britain out of the European Union at the beginning of 2020 and to pass to negotiations on future the relations of Great Britain with the block.
Elections instead of a referendum
It is unambiguously possible to tell that Johnson will receive powers to carry out the law on Brexit through the lower house of parliament — the House of Commons. Before elections he insisted that all candidates from the party of the Tory supported the agreement on Brexit which he concluded with Brussels in October. In the speech after the victory Johnson said that the result of elections removes a debate concerning the second referendum on Brexit.
It is expected that the House of Commons will vote for the agreement till Christmas. Then the House of Lords will consider the plan and after it it is ratified by parliament of Great Britain, then the European Parliament will vote for the agreement. Possibly, this process will take place without complications that will allow Johnson to adhere to the current planned date of an exit — on January 31, 2020.
Attention to details and a game in Brussels
The attention will quickly pass to a phase of a transition period according to which Great Britain will have relations with from the EU on the existing conditions by the end of December, 2020. During this transition period Johnson will need to decide what relations after the Brexit he wants with the EU in the most different areas: From trade to safety, defenses, fishings, data protection and sciences.
If he is not able to conclude the trade agreement during this transitional stage, Great Britain will leave the EU without agreement and will trade with the EU on the terms of the World Trade Organization. In the pre-election manifesto year of the Tory promised not to prolong a transition period of Brexit though, having such big majority and having violated many promises in the past, Johnson still is able to do it.
But he needs all the same to win party in Brussels. In return, Brussels stated that it is ready to begin the following stage of negotiations. Leaders of EU countries — 27 will discuss Brexit later in p «yatnitsyu at the end of the summit in Brussels.
The first step for the new-old government of Johnson is establishment of priorities of Great Britain for this second round of negotiations. During the first phase of negotiations on Brexit of the EU established the agenda and defined sequence on which subjects will be considered. This situation was accepted still the former prime minister Theresa May.
This time Great Britain will demand that negotiations about various elements of future relations were conducted in parallel as it will allow to reach compromises, considering pressure of date of end of a transition period, namely till December, 2020.
Brexit can delay
Johnson did not specify yet, kind of he could act in this plan, however diplomats of EU Member States agree that the deadline in December, 2020 is not obligatory for achievement of the comprehensive agreement on future the relations between Great Britain and the EU. They expect that the British prime minister will violate the promise and will ask to prolong a transition period in the summer of 2020.
Considering scales of future negotiations of rather future relations, some leaders of the EU would like that the transition period lasted so much how many can be required for achievement of the comprehensive agreement. Thus, they are more inclined to provide to Great Britain longer term, than what was recorded during negotiations on the agreement of Brexit — up to two-three years.
During a transition period the joint committee Great Britain of the EU will exercise supervision of implementation of the agreement on Brexit and will define, or both parties adhere to the craws «yazan. Irrespective of evolution of future negotiations on the relations, the transition period can open opportunities for further collisions between London and Brussels and to become peculiar «Trick-22»: than the transition period, that high probability of the fact that something with «to be that will complicate it is longer; But the shorter transition period, the is more difficult to conclude the agreement on future relations.
It is also quite probable that the British government will continue to prepare for potential «rigid» to the Brexit in December, 2020 as spare option.
This scenario is awful for business climate of Great Britain: The companies already spent billions of pounds sterling, preparing for a situation without agreement three times within the last two years. Johnson should decide at what moment its government will begin to notify the British industry about any possible changes which can negatively influence economic activity and economic climate.
Johnson also should consider a question of whether the structure of the British government for the second phase of negotiations approaches. Expect that shift in the government will soon take place to be prepared for the second stage of negotiations.
Johnson or Cabinet of Ministers?
As the prime minister, Johnson has to decide as far as he would like to be in the course of daily making decisions on future negotiations on the relations with Brussels. It can transfer some to responsibility of an office, to be exact — its «alter ego» to Michael a guva, to the former candidate for the prime minister’s post.
The matter is that the different ministries have different programs in negotiations in terms of priorities. Not least, for example, the Ministry of Trade, considers that the arrangement with the EU is weaker, the more space will appear for a game with the USA or any other country. The future of existence of the Ministry of affairs of Brexit also is in in hover though his employees will still play a role in coordinating of preparation to «rigid» to the Brexit and providing analytical support to government team which conducts negotiations of rather future relations.
However some analysts consider that it is better to conduct negotiations through the cabinet as central player who has no departmental program, but plays the coordinating role. If to shift responsibility to negotiations on the separate ministries, and they have just the same no agenda as in the prime minister, then there is a potential for such problems which we saw between Theresa May and the former ministers of affairs of Brexit David Davies and Dominic Raab.
One-party majority in English
Well and finally, Johnson as pry «to a ¾r-m_n_str does not need to think more about fractional war in the party. Monob_lsh_st means parties that the prime minister is able to afford to ignore considerable opposition in the ranks and nevertheless «to press through» vote in the House of Commons. However Johnson will need to weigh possible economic benefits from further delays of the agreement on trade against political shortcomings failure to follow the pre-election manifesto.
Dmitry Tupchiyenko, doctoral candidate of the University of northern London